The Big Three

Five weeks in. Fifty-eight events. 3,686 players. Fifty-eight winners.

Atlanta reshaped the format and week five confirmed it. The format currently has three pillars. Boba / Lake Country, Lando / Lake Country, and Obi-Wan / Blue Force are consuming the top of the meta in a way that nothing else is. If you can beat all three, you’re well positioned. If you can only beat two of them, you’d better know which one you’re giving up before you register.

The APR data broadly confirms this picture while adding some specific textures the community conversation is still working out. Let’s get into it.

The Dataset

58 Hub events, 3,686 players, 464 Top 8 slots, 58 wins. Field estimates from Meta Stats actual deck count data — a healthy number of tracked archetypes (257 total) with everything below the two-deck threshold folded into the remainder bucket. The API export sits at 420 submitted T8 decklists, which means roughly 10% of T8 appearances still don’t have submitted lists. The APR math uses Hub counts throughout, so that gap doesn’t affect the core numbers.

The New Order of Things

Now that Atlanta has come and gone and the wider community has been exposed to Lando / Lake Country, have people jumped entirely to this new archetype once they’ve figured it out? The week five data looks like it’s become a strong contender, but Lando isn’t running away with the format; it’s sitting at the top of a three-deck cluster. Here’s what the numbers look like:

Three very different two-stage profiles sitting at the top of the same format.

Lando / Lake Country is, of course, the only deck currently positive at both stages. +84.87% at entry, +54.82% at close. Five wins in a single weekend. If the field estimate of 87 players seems low for a deck this discussed, that’s because it is: the deck went public at Atlanta on April 18 and the field data only partially captures adoption since then. The APR numbers are directionally right but will moderate as more players register the deck in future weeks (more on that in the predictions section).

One nuance worth adding here, those wins averaged 38 players per event, with one tournament under 16. Obi-wan/Blue Force’s three wins this weekend averaged 59 players per event, which arguably carries more weight in terms of what the deck can do against a competitively representative field. The APR’s logarithmic normalization already accounts for event size to some degree, but the specific shape of Lando’s wins — several smaller events rather than one large one — is worth keeping in mind as the season data grows.

Boba / Lake Country crossed a notable threshold this week: T8->Win APR went negative for the first time, sitting at -1.90%. Boba still has the most wins of any archetype (9) and the third-best entry APR in the dataset. The deck is not falling off. But it is no longer closing above expectation, and the community is starting to feel the difference. Boba seems to struggle against both Obi-Wan and Lando in the current matchup matrix. Turnout numbers for Boba seem to be on a downward trend as well. The entry APR at +37.94% shows Boba still reaching the cut at well above expectation; what’s changed, of course, is what happens when it gets there.

Obi-Wan / Blue Force finally won twice. Edmonds (64 players) and Cedar Rapids (59 players), both April 25. The 0-for-46 narrative is over. What replaced it is a 2-for-46 narrative, which is still a closing underperformance given a field estimate of 251 players. The entry APR of +30.69% confirms the deck is reaching cuts at above-expectation rates. The -40.88% closing APR says something structural is still preventing consistent conversion. If Boba’s star continues to fade, will Obi-Wan pick up some additional wins?

The tension between these two Obi-Wan numbers is the most interesting ongoing question in the dataset. Obi-wan/Blue Force players due seem to be converging on a 28 HP base as better in general with the Vergence Temple version outperforming specifically in the mirror — sort of a reasonable trade-off depending on what you expect to face. The good old plain-English translation of what the APR numbers say is basically that it’s a workhorse deck that is really consistent at what it does but isn’t overwhelmingly strong. The APR data is consistent with this: OB/Blue Force at +30.69% entry, OB/Vergence Temple at +0.99% entry. The Blue Force variant is bringing more players to cuts. Neither is closing at positive rates (OB/VT sits at exactly 0.00% T8->Win with 2 wins from 16 appearances, right at the baseline).

The Lando Matchup Matrix

This week everyone surely spent significant time sorting out what Lando specifically does and what answers exist. One big answer from those in the know is that Watch This is where the game ends. The ability to exhaust your entire space board on the turn it matters most shuts down any strategy that relies on a decisive space attack for the finishing blow. Hand hate (Hold for Questioning, Garindan main deck) and the flexibility to strip Watch This before it lands are the main lines people are testing. To that end, the Vader Yellow lists that have been performing this week are specifically leaning on Garindan in the main deck as a way to crack Lando’s hand open before the critical turn.

The matchup matrix showed Lando beating OB/Blue Force at a better than expected rate after Atlanta-era results flipped that. Lando seems to sit at roughly 67-68% overall win rate, with specific bad matchups against Yularen multiaspect (that’s the Red 27HP splash build, not the standard Red build), Aurra Data Vault, and Darth Maul. That Darth Maul number surprised me too but it shows up in the data consistently enough to mention.

The decks currently being positioned as Lando answers, per the week five consensus: Aurra Sing / Data Vault as soft-control midrange, Piett in both flavors, and for the brave, Vader builds running hand hate in the main.

Aurra Sing / Data Vault Is Real

Aurra is here and seems to be fairing well against the increasingly mid-range meta. The APR agrees, and it’s been agreeing quietly for several weeks now.

Both stages positive, entry approaching the elite tier, a healthy number of T8 appearances to start drawing real conclusions from. The shift in the meta to increasingly mid range strengths applies to Aurra in the same direction: the 33 HP base, the solid mid-range play pattern, the flexibility to answer what Boba and Lando are trying to do without being a pure aggro deck. It’s solid, consistent, not flashy, very hard to hate effectively because it’s just too well-rounded.

At 54 field players this is still a deck the format hasn’t fully recalibrated against. Of course, that changes as coverage grows, but for now both APR stages are positive and it has been for a while. The APR confirms this is something real.

Admiral Piett and the Question of Which Version

Two Piett builds, two very different profiles:

Piett / Blue is reaching cuts at well above expectation and not closing well (a pattern that should look familiar from the Obi-Wan discussion above). Piett / Red is the more interesting story. The +78.61% closing APR is elite but from only 4 T8 appearances, so treat that as directional rather than confirmed. What’s notable, of course, is that both builds are showing above-expectation entry APRs, which we can probably use as illustration of the meta moving in a mid-rangey direction that suits Piett’s game plan considerably. Piett is looking like a deck you might want to explore more.

Colonel Yularen: Still Being Faded, Still Not Fading

Is Yularen on a downswing or is it one of the best positioned decks in the field?

The entry APR at +28.62% has been positive since week one. The closing APR dipped to -7.70%, which tracks with the thought  that as Lando rises, Yularen (which struggles in that matchup specifically) has a harder path through elimination. The matchup matrix seems to show Yularen as fairly well positioned against most of the meta, but having some issues with Obi-wan. The APR captures this tension neatly: the deck is still over-converting field share to cuts, but the specific matchup problems in elimination are keeping it from closing consistently.

The fade thesis isn’t unreasonable as a forward-looking view if Lando continues to grow. The current APR says the fade hasn’t shown up in the data yet. Keep watching.

Darth Vader: Not Dead, Not Dominant

Both stages positive, three wins, field estimate now a solid 125. This is no longer the comeback story it was in week four; it’s a legitimate mid-tier archetype posting modest positive APR at both stages. Here’s why Vader’s ceiling is limited though: Aurra Sing’s leader ability directly counters Vader’s, so as Aurra rises, Vader faces a structural matchup problem that isn’t going away. In a similar vein, it looks like the Antony winning list was using the Cunning 30 HP base with specific hand hate to crack open Lando, which is a reasonable adaptation to the current field. The deck is real. It’s probably not the format-definer people (like myself) briefly thought it might be, but it’s doing its job.

Tobias Beckett: The Workhorse

There’s always one deck in every meta that quietly does its job without generating much discourse, and Tobias is filling that role right now.

Both stages positive. Three wins. Twenty Top 8 appearances. The numbers don’t shout, but they’ve been consistently above baseline for five weeks running. One place Tobias struggles is into Obi-Wan, which explains why it hasn’t climbed higher as OB has grown in popularity. From a field-positioning perspective, the deck is a solid choice that doesn’t have a particularly punishing bad matchup across the rest of the field. Of course, if you run into three Obi-Wan players in Swiss you’re going to have a rough day, but that’s true of most decks right now.

Luke Skywalker: It’s Not Getting Better

Zero wins from 29 Top 8 appearances. Week five. The field-stage APR has essentially flatlined at +0.40%, meaning the deck is now just barely reaching the cut at expected rates. Five weeks ago it was over-performing at entry while zero-winning at close. Now it’s failing to meaningfully over-perform at either stage.

The Luke play rate dropped sharply in week five and it seems that people are (rightfully) moving on. What’s particularly punishing from a matchup perspective is that Luke struggles heavily into both Lando and Obi-Wan — two of the three decks currently consuming the meta. As the field fills with bad matchups, even the Swiss performance rate falls.

The Rogue Deck Corner

A few archetypes from this week’s results worth noting:

Kazuda Xiono / Data Vault won at Groton (69 players). Looks like Falcon/Chewie/Kazuda as a mid-game package that, once assembled, is remarkably difficult to interact with. Data Vault for longevity, Red Leader and Liberty as late-game bombs. The deck reads as a solid mid-range build that leverages Kazuda’s pilot-protection interaction in ways people aren’t prepared to answer yet. Of course, two T8 appearances is barely a sample, but the deck won a real event at 69 players.

Poe Dameron / Data Vault won at Essen (68 players). In a similar vein to Kazuda, here’s a list running Rey as a protected late-game threat alongside standard Poe aggression — the argument being that if you can’t close it out early, you drop a 9/9 that your opponent can’t Shatterpoint or No Glory so they’re taking massive damage. Poe is probably less targeted right now than Luke since the format has been preparing specifically for Luke for weeks. Two Data Vault wins in a weekend from non-Luke strategies is worth flagging.

Dryden Vos / Blue Force showed up in multiple Top 8s. Devastating when it works, inconsistent by design, high ceiling, punishing when you hit the right pieces but very flimsy when you don’t. You need the right ambush target and the right discard. When you have both, giving ambush to a beefy attacker on curve is game-ending. When you don’t, you’re playing a low HP base with awkward early resources. Worth knowing it exists. Don’t build around it expecting consistency.

Lando Calrissian / Green Force placed just 35th at Atlanta but worth noting. Uses a shell that borrows heavily from the Qui-Gon Green Force frame. The key addition is Starhawk — which can be played on the same turn as your leader and allow you to start going wide in ways opponents aren’t prepared for. The deck skips the Qui-Gon looping engine in exchange for more consistency and cleaner curve. Small sample, but worth noting as another Lando variant that doesn’t need Lake Country to function.

The HP and Base Crowding Situation Update

Lake Country now has 102 combined Top 8 appearances between Boba and Lando. That’s 22% of all Top 8 slots in the season across one base, and the number continues to climb. Of course, the question is whether Lake Country is overperforming as a base or whether the leaders running it are doing the work — and the answer is clearly the latter. But from a format-health perspective, one leader/base combination occupying a fifth of every cut is the same signal regardless of cause. Of the five most played archetypes in week five, four of them are on either a unique named base (Lake Country, Data Vault) or a Force base

That’s the base crowding problem expressed from a different angle: it’s not just Lake Country and Data Vault compressing the viable base space; it’s that the specific named and Force bases have become the competitive baseline, and the broader aspect-generic or other below 30HP options are increasingly uncompetitive at the top tables.

Does slapping Lake Country on essentially any leader right now just make it better? I hear a Jabba Blue list won a PQ this weekend after making the switch to Lake Country.  Will something like Chewbacca or Yularen make the move next? Slimming down to one aspect forces some choices but gaining 4 HP in this format is increasingly looking like the correct trade. The answer to “How many more leaders follow Boba and Lando to Lake Country?” is probably the most interesting format-shaping question heading into the rest of the season.

The Full Table

Three Predictions

Since a reader asked a few weeks ago whether the APR can be used for predictions, and I said it could be, here are three explicit ones to evaluate next week:

1. Aurra Sing / Data Vault cracks 20 T8 appearances. The entry APR has been consistently positive and the community is actively testing and discussing it. Currently at 13.
   
2. Luke Skywalker / Data Vault ends the season without ever winning a PQ. The structural closing problem at -55.38% T8->Win APR from 29 appearances across five weeks doesn’t have a fix visible in the data.
   
3. Lando / Lake Country’s entry APR moderates below +60% as field share grows. The deck is going from a surprise weapon to an expected quantity. The APR reflects surprise value in the early weeks; as more players register it, the field share grows faster than T8 appearances and the entry number falls. It will still be positive. It won’t stay at +84%.
   

There you have it. Check back next week.

Archetype counts and wins from SWU Competitive Hub (58 Premier PQs + Atlanta Sector Qualifier, >32 players). Field estimates from Meta Stats archetype deck count page. T8 decklists: SWU Meta Stats API, 420 submitted Premier-format lists.