Ok, last week’s pitch was that we seemed to be heading in the right direction post Cad with virtually all signals pointing positively. This week, however, there are some early indications otherwise.
Here’s the usual note before diving in: field share, APR, and Bounty Rating track on the post-ban baseline that started in Week 6. Avg Matchup WR, FWME, and HHI never reset, so those stay comparable across the season. The full explanation’s on the FAQ page.
The Correction
Our T8 HHI went the wrong way this week and consolidated upward slightly from 5.39 up to 5.51. That’s still Healthy on the current scale and nowhere near the Moderate band the format carried while Cad Bane was legal, but the direction reversed after two straight weeks of decline. Field HHI kept falling, though, from 3.95 to 3.71, so it’s not a clean reversal across the board. The field at large keeps opening up even as the T8 is tightening.
It shows up in Bounty Rating too. Krennic’s own rating climbed from 86.8 to 90.1, and the gap from first to second place widened, formerly 9.7 points last week to 15.5 now. His Top 8 share climbed back to 15.3%, and the badge reverted from Balanced to Notable. Granted, Krennic isn’t up to Cad numbers yet, but it’s worth noting that the top end of competitive play does seem to be consolidating again.
The Part That’s Still Good News
While Krennic widened the gap over the rest of the field, there is some nuance to the story as the tier right behind him got tighter – at least from a Bounty Rating perspective. Lando at 74.6, Krennic’s own Blue Splash build at 73.9, Darth Maul at 73.3, and Ahsoka at 72.8 are all within 1.8 points of each other. A real, competitive second tier, even if none of them are closing on the top spot. A clear #1 with a genuine fight for #2 isn’t the same story as the Cad Bane era’s 27-point runaway gaps, and the tight race for 2nd keeps me optimistic on the meta as a whole right now.
It’s also worth looking at this from an APR specific angle. Although Krennic’s rise looks to be growing, it is increasingly on the back of an entry-stage story. As it turns out, his S1-APR has climbed every week since the ban from +20.3% to +26.1% to +36.2% now, the best raw entry number in the pool. But on the other hand, his closing number hasn’t kept pace, first +28.4% to +9.2% to +15.8%. Still positive but well off his Week 6 level. The three decks posting the best S2-APR right now are Darth Maul at +44.6%, Lando at +42.9%, and (admittedly tricky for shorthand talk about the top deck) Krennic’s own Blue Splash variant build at +42.6%, all clear of the mainline Blue 30’s +15.8%. His own secondary build is a better closer than he is, that’s worth watching and might be a sign that more folks will start switching to the splash build until it’s the mainline.
Lando Keeps Climbing
He’s a clean #2 in Bounty Rating now, up from a tie for 4th with The Mandalorian last week. His raw win rate, 58.2%, is second-best in the pool, and his S2-APR component is nearly maxed at 98.2. His matchup into Krennic has settled too at 50.4%, basically a coinflip rather than the outright edge from a few weeks back. On the other hand, the one real blemish on his profile all season has been entry efficiency. His S1-APR has been negative nearly every week tracked, but even that’s turning: -5.9% last week to +12.7% now, while his elite closing number held steady. Of everyone chasing the top spot, he’s doing it most consistently, on the fewest remaining weaknesses.
The Matchup Picture Just Got a Lot Clearer
Sample sizes are real now that we’re a few weeks into the post Cad world, and despite some of my early notes on Krennic’s rise, the picture is thankfully more textured than “Krennic beats everyone.” He’s favored against most of the field, but particularly close, 48 to 52 percent, against six real decks: Mother Talzin / Red Force, The Mandalorian, Lando, Aurra Sing, Dedra, and Ahsoka.
Ahsoka’s own number in that band is one that has moved appreciably lately. It’s been sliding the whole time this column’s tracked it, 53% in Week 6, 49.8% in Week 7 and now down to 48.4. What started as the early answer to Krennic is now a real, if modest, losing matchup, and at this point, I think the sample is too big to just pass off to noice. Darth Maul’s the odd one out in the other direction: a strong season by every other measure, but 43.9% into Krennic specifically.
It’s worth naming the clearest not-working signal in the pool too. Luke Skywalker (ASH) / Data Vault and Greef Karga / Data Vault are the only two archetypes negative on both APR stages. That said, it’s a different problem than Darth Vader or Boba Fett / Lake Country who are both fine on entry but staggering on the attempt to close.
Turin
While the Sector in Turin was limited, it also included a Sector Open tournament which I think is worth talking about here as the largest event post Cad at 125 players. And I have to admit that it produced the most interesting single-event result of the season so far. Chewbacca / Alliance Outpost took both first and fourth. Really not something I’d have predicted the way this season has been going. Chewbacca’s style of aggro, particularly at the cost to its own development leaves it in a tough spot against anything can weather the early assault. There’s only 10 entries in the data we’ve pulled and I don’t think the Sector Open is included with the data from SWU Meta Stats, so put a pin in this one rather than a crown on Chewie’s head – I’ve got a feeling this is a fluke worth congratulating the pilot over.
Just as notable is who didn’t show up. Krennic, this week’s clear #1, finished 8th out of 125. Lando, the deck on the sharpest upward trajectory, isn’t in the Top 8 at all. Of the bracket’s top finishers, only one lines up with the season-long numbers: Luke Skywalker (JTL) / Data Vault took 2nd at Turin and sits 8th in this week’s Bounty Rating Top 10. Ahsoka (7th at Turin, 5th on the season) is the only other overlap, and she got there on a rough week by her own recent numbers. A single bracket and a five-week aggregate answer different questions, and Turin’s as clean an illustration of that gap as this column’s had all season.
One more little mention: the main event in Turin was a Limited Sector Qualifier with 408 players and the final table featured Shin Hati / Green taking the title over Sabine Wren / Green. I know, I know, it’s a different format, different card pool, etc, but I thought it was worth acknowledging here. Props to the Swoop Racers, if I’m tracking international teams correctly – and if I’m not, my apologies! Correct me and help me start memorizing more folks.
Anyway, there you have it. The field continues to widen while the T8 meta tightens and Bounty Rating suggests that Krennic is elevating himself further as more players become acquainted with the play patterns and make the leap to try him out. Still, the race for a second place deck is clearly on, and perhaps one of them will find a way to stall Krennic’s ascent.
